Ukraine’s poultry industry could increase its focus on the UK as exports to the EU become constrained by a 120,000t annual quota
Are Ukrainian poultrymeat imports to the UK about to ramp up again? That is the prediction from the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service. “Exports to the UK will grow exponentially,” a USDA report published on 19 August says, adding that the UK ‘may surpass the Netherlands as Ukraine’s largest single-country export market’.
The reason is the new quota limits imposed by the EU on Ukraine last year, limited at 120,000t in 2026, which are now starting to bite. This raises the possibility that exports to the UK may accelerate, with Ukraine able to ship poultry to Britain without a quota or import duty until March 2028.
The UK market is already significant. According to the NFU, Britain imported 43,409t of Ukrainian poultrymeat in the first 10 months of 2025, alongside 11,901t of Ukrainian shell eggs and egg products. The figures were published by the NFU in January 2026 as it responded to the UK government’s decision to extend tariff- free access for Ukrainian poultry and eggs.
The NFU said Ukrainian poultry imports had risen significantly above the country’s pre-war trade quotas. NFU Poultry Board chairman Will Raw said at the time: “UK farmers stand in solidarity with our farming colleagues in Ukraine.”
However, he added that the NFU was ‘extremely concerned’ that another two years of full liberalisation could significantly affect domestic producers.
Raw also said in January: “Since the initial deal was signed in 2022, UK imports of Ukrainian chicken have risen by almost 300%.” The UK government subsequently confirmed that tariff liberalisation for Ukrainian eggs and poultry would continue until 31 March 2028. The wider UK-Ukraine agreement provides tariff-free trade for other goods until March 2029.
The USDA’s latest assessment suggests that difference in market access is becoming increasingly important. Ukraine’s overall poultry export industry is also expected to grow. The latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecast puts chicken meat exports at about 450,000t in 2025, rising to 490,000t in 2026 and 530,000t in 2027.
That does not mean poultry previously destined for the EU will automatically be redirected to Britain. The USDA says the EU remains a destination of choice because of its size, geographical proximity and the premium prices available for Ukrainian poultry products. Ukrainian producers also have established markets in the Middle East, Africa and former Soviet states.
However, the latest forecast points out that Britain offers Ukrainian producers an opportunity to expand sales at a time when overall Ukrainian poultry exports are forecast to increase.
The NFU has already called for close monitoring of trade flows and argued that Ukrainian imports should meet UK animal welfare standards. In January, Raw said: “The monitoring of trade flows is vital.” He warned that increasing imports could put additional pressure on British producers.
The immediate issue is not whether Ukrainian poultry will suddenly flood the UK market. It is whether Britain becomes an increasingly important outlet for a Ukrainian industry that is forecasting substantial export growth, while the EU places a firm limit on its own preferential access. And with the UK offering tariff-free access until 2028, British poultry producers will be watching closely to see just how much of that growth comes their way.
Ukraine trade quota
The EU’s revised Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with Ukraine entered into force on 29 October 2025. It established a new poultry tariff-rate quota of 120,000t. That is higher than the pre-war DCFTA quota of 90,000t, but lower than the 133,283t quota available under the EU’s temporary Autonomous Trade Measures in 2024 and part of 2025.