Strong pricing and the British public’s appetite for chicken is combining to give the sector a boost. Michael Barker asks how long it can last
A series of global shocks has put UK food prices on a sustained upward path over the past five years, piling pressure on households that are having to be selective about the groceries they buy.
The poultry category has been one of the beneficiaries of that situation, as consumers opt for more affordable protein and chicken sales remain buoyant. With producers reporting better returns, it represents a moment of positivity for the category.
But how long can strong pricing be expected to continue, and is the sector being held back from capitalising on that momentum by red tape and government policy?
According to ONS data published in June, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 2.2% in the 12 months to May 2026, down from 3% in the 12 months to April. That might be the lowest rate since December 2024 and suggest a slowdown, but it still means continued upward movement in prices.
Indeed, chicken prices have risen dramatically since the start of the decade. ONS figures show an oven-ready fresh chicken cost just £2.72/kg in January 2020, but that had rocketed to £3.89/kg by November 2023, at the peak of inflation. Since then it has remained relatively steady, sitting at £3.78 in January 2025, the latest available figure.
A combination of factors has driven the increase, with the biggest being Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which pushed up energy and agricultural input costs across the board. In 2026, that has been further exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East, while in the UK specifically, increases in labour costs as a result of National Minimum Wage rises have only spiked inflation further. Hopes that the Iran war were about to end had been put on hold at the time of writing, while experts suggest the threat of the upcoming ‘Super El Niño’ will only put further pressure on food prices.
The Food & Drink Federation (FDF) has revised its food inflation forecast upwards and now expects inflation to reach between 9–10% by December 2026, compared with its previous forecast of 3.2% in September 2025. “The war in Iran has already delivered a significant economic shock. Its full impact on the global and UK economy will depend on both the duration and intensity of the conflict,” says Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist at the FDF. “In particular, outcomes will be shaped by how long the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, as well as the scale of physical damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East.”
What could happen to pricing going forwards?
One of the big frustrations for consumers in particular is the feeling that prices tend to rise quickly, but never seem to come down very fast after any given crisis has subsided. It’s an area that the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has spent time analysing, and its findings are pertinent to what could happen to poultry prices once the Iran war is eventually resolved.
The non-profit UK group has crunched more than 30 years of food price data, and writing in June, it revealed a clear structural pattern that it has dubbed “rockets and feathers”. In short, food prices shoot up like rockets during shocks, but reverse only slowly and partially afterwards – like falling feathers. “This effect has significant consequences for living standards and food security,” it says.
ECIU points out that there is a divergence between production costs and retail prices. During recent shocks, commodity and energy costs spiked, but as these only account for a proportion of food costs, it notes that underlying commodity and energy costs rose modestly compared to consumer prices – which typically increased by three to seven times as much.
ECIU’s analysis shows that shocks do not simply lift prices temporarily, but reset the entire system onto a higher cost baseline. In nominal terms, prices show only limited reversal after a shock. Across the price rises it examined, the median reversal is just 1% after six months, 5% after one year and 7% after two years.
In some ways, the poultry sector is expected to continue to benefit for some time as the most affordable of the meat proteins. As AHDB’s retail and consumer insight manager Emma Wantling notes, beef prices rose sharply in 2025 due to supply constraints, with higher prices and lower volume sales as a consequence. As consumers look to buy cheaper options for everyday use, she argues that sales of chicken breast are expected to go up alongside more affordable red meat options such as beef mince and pork sausages. Whole birds, chicken legs, wings and thighs are also expected to be popular.
Tension over planning
While poultry producers have enjoyed the stability of better returns over the past year, there’s growing frustration that other issues are holding back the sector from taking advantage of the moment. Chief among those is the current planning environment, with industry bodies arguing that the government needs to properly support producers’ desire to modernise and expand.
As NFU Poultry Board chair Will Raw explains: “Whether it’s a weeknight staple or the centrepiece of a Sunday roast, chicken remains the nation’s favourite meat. As demand for British chicken continues to grow, farmers must be able to invest, modernise and expand to meet the needs of the nation. British poultry producers are proud to put bird health and welfare first whilst also working to protect the environment, but they need a policy framework that boosts confidence within the sector and most crucially a planning system that enables, rather than restricts, growth.”
Too often, Raw says, poultry businesses are being held back by the UK’s planning system, leaving British production behind at a time when confidence in the sector remains comparatively strong. “The latest NFU confidence survey shows poultry is the only sector reporting positive confidence levels, with short-term confidence higher than that for the medium-term,” he adds. “While there is some confidence there, levels remain low and this underlines the ongoing volatility poultry producers face, which is further compounded by challenges such as avian flu, labour availability or rising costs.”
Raw stresses that British poultry farmers are ready to invest in the future, but need the right regulatory framework to enable responsible growth. “The latest NFU broiler shed age survey found that the average broiler house in the UK is now over 30 years old, making it clear that investment in infrastructure is crucial and this will only be possible if the government ensures the planning system is fit for purpose,” he explains. “Without a more proportionate approach, we risk limiting the ability of British poultry farmers to meet consumer demand and improve efficiencies.”
Raw believes there needs to be consistent national guidance for local authorities and streamlined routes for low-risk development, adding that the NFU is working with the government to create a better strategy that would allow poultry producers to continue to deliver a high-quality, nutritious and affordable protein. “Our most immediate ask is that meaningful actions are taken before it’s too late,” he concludes.
The British Poultry Council takes a similar view, and one of its current top priorities has been to argue for a planning system that recognises food production as Critical National Infrastructure and essential economic infrastructure that underpins stable supply, investment and jobs. The industry body argues that should include permitted development reform, in which rights would be extended to enable essential upgrades such as welfare improvements and energy efficiency. It also wants to see national planning guidance for food production to be developed, recognising food production as essential infrastructure and helping local authorities to ensure consistent decision making.
It’s all about building resilience and shoring up Britain’s capacity to feed itself in the face of an ever-more insecure global landscape. “With climate impacts intensifying, national security warnings of incoming ecosystem degradation and collapse, geopolitical tensions rising, and fossil fuel dependence and volatility still baked into food production, further shocks are inevitable,” ECIU concludes. “Without action to build resilience – through diversified supply chains, lower fossil fuel reliance, and climate-compatible agriculture – we risk eroding food affordability, deepening inequalities and undermining economic security.”