The outlook for global poultry in 2020 will be materially affected by the current coronavirus pandemic, and the ongoing African swine fever (ASF) challenges in the pork industry will bring additional complexity to global markets, according to Rabobank’s quarterly report on the global market for poultry.
Although the outlook is still moderately positive for most markets, the fast-moving coronavirus is adding significant uncertainty.
“We expect a further drop in pork production in Asia this year, which could lead to potential growth in local poultry production and international trade, if rising supply chain challenges can be managed,” the report states. As coronavirus is now expected to cause a global economic slowdown, poultry demand could benefit among the proteins, due to its price competitiveness.
“In terms of markets, we expect more at-home poultry consumption and higher sales of non-perishable poultry products. Labour availability and logistics issues, such as those impacting distribution, will likely affect supply in the coming months. Coronavirus will also affect the global supply of poultry inputs (like feed additives and animal health products), due to disruptions at Chinese and other suppliers,” according to Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Global Specialist – Animal Protein.
The changing economic and market conditions brought by the coronavirus pandemic will have significant impacts on global poultry in 2020. Global trade will face more volatility this year, with both destinations and origins affected, as well as pricing. Total volumes are likely to be affected temporarily, and trade should ultimately benefit from local supply issues related to coronavirus, ASF, and avian influenza (AI). The biggest coronavirus-related issues will be potential shocks in supply and demand driven by quarantine and logistics issues and temporary changes in consumer demand towards at-home consumption and non-perishable products. As this could impact supply and demand, it has the potential to also impact global poultry markets and pricing.