The AIMS fresh meat and poultry inflation report for September remarkably shows that, both month on month and year on year, the average price fell by 0.74% (£0.09/kg) across the 30 lines reviewed.
“Looking at the most recent ONS Consumer Price Inflation report covering August, it noted that there was ‘a small downward effect from meat, where prices fell slightly in August’, a position which was mirrored in our August report,” said Tony Goodger, Head of Communications at AIMS. “Our September analysis shows that this trend has continued, with all three of the red meats dropping back in price across the month.”
“Only chicken, which rose by 3.17% (+£0.15/kg), bucked this trend,” Goodger continued. “Year on year, the AIMS figures show that chicken breast portions (5.54% / -£0.42/kg) and chicken thigh fillets (11.39% / -£1.03/kg) contributed to an overall drop of 1.01% (-£0.05/kg) across the category, and that it was only the continued high prices for lamb, which has risen by £0.71/kg (4.25%), that stopped the 12-month fall being greater.”
“With German-owned Aldi announcing a near £1 billion investment in the coming 12 months, which, coupled with its commitment to fresh British Red Tractor-assured chicken, could, unless an expansion in production is quickly approved by local planners, place further supply/demand pressures along the supply chain.”
“Looking at ONS’s shopping price comparison tool for August, I can’t help but notice that the price of fresh salmon fillets has risen by 2.2% year on year, whilst British chicken fillets are reported as being 0.4% cheaper over the same period,” said Goodger.
“I suggest that whilst British farmers and poultry processors have been battling the never-ending rise in input costs, their overall cost of production is not being adequately remunerated at the supermarket checkout.
“I am also inclined to think that greater competition from a wider number of markets, be it from domestic or overseas farming enterprises, has allowed for its price to move up more in line with increased production costs.
“The coming month will be interesting. With students back at university and children at school, there will be an increased demand from foodservice buyers who are committed to British meat and poultry supply chains. And, if the weather remains warm, then no doubt the barbecue season will extend into October, which could lead to increased demand for steak, mince and other grilling lines,” concluded Goodger.