The global poultry sector started 2025 on solid footing, driven by high beef and egg prices and lower feed costs. However, a wave of uncertainty now looms, with geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, and avian influenza outbreaks reshaping the industry outlook, according to RaboResearch’s latest animal protein report.
Geopolitical instability, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, and postponed US import tariffs have already dampened economic sentiment. The IMF has cut global GDP growth forecasts by 0.5%, prompting RaboResearch to reduce its poultry production forecast for 2025 to 2-2.5%, down from 2.5-3%. “While global markets remain resilient, regional variations will emerge,” said Nan-Dirk Mulder, RaboResearch’s senior analyst for animal protein.
A potential trade war involving the US could reshape export markets. If resolved, US poultry may gain access to more markets, threatening local and rival exporters. If not, restrictions could boost competitors like Brazil, Thailand, and the EU, but also spark inflation in high-tariff economies, especially in Asia and Africa.
Meanwhile, the Israel-Iran conflict threatens poultry trade across the Middle East, a major import market. Brazil, Turkey, the US, and Ukraine could all face export disruptions if tensions escalate.
Disease outbreaks add further strain. Bird flu in Brazil has already led to import bans from major buyers, blocking 40% of its exports. Similar outbreaks in Europe and the US have hit the hatching egg trade, tightening supply globally, particularly in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.