A “modest growth” in global poultry meat production is forecast for 2016, with output rising by 1.1% to 116.2 million tonnes, according the latest Food Outlook report from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.
The biannual report, published today, states that world meat production in general this year will “stagnate” at about 321 million tonnes. Within that overall picture, however, the forecast for poultry meat is that output will register some growth, followed by bovine and ovine meat, while pigmeat production “could decline”.
“Substantial (poultry meat) expansion is anticipated in the United States and Brazil, as well as greater production in the EU, India, the Russian Federation, Argentina, Mexico and Canada, along with most other countries,” it is stated.
“Rising demand and sustained low feed costs have provided the basis for increased output. At the same time, China may experience a production fall, provisionally estimated at 5%, due to lacklustre consumer demand. Trade prohibitions on countries with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have also hindered the sector’s growth in China by curtailing access to replacement broiler breeding stock.”
In terms of trade prospects in poultry meat this year, the FAO report forecasts a 3.5% rise in volume, to a total of 12.7 million tonnes.
“Prevailing low international prices and rising domestic consumption have been important factors in stimulating import demand in a number of markets,” it is stated. “This includes Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Japan, Viet Nam, Cuba and the United Arab Emirates. By contrast, purchases by China and the Russian Federation may fall.
“Brazil, the United States and Thailand are expected to be the main suppliers of the rising demand.”
The full report runs to 139 pages, covering all sectors of food production and trade.