The British poultry meat industry has warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is triggering a chain reaction of supply disruptions and cost pressures that could drive up production costs and, ultimately, food prices for UK consumers. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route, has disrupted the flow of key inputs including oil, gas, fertiliser, and essential feed components, resulting in knock on impacts that are placing significant strain on the sector. Industry leaders are calling on government to recognise the scale of the risk to domestic food production, engage closely with the sector, and take coordinated action to address mounting supply chain pressures.
Energy and fuel inflation will increase costs across every link in the supply chain, with the price rise of liquified petroleum gas, used for heating poultry sheds, as a particular vulnerability. For poultry meat production there is increasing uncertainty over the supply of key vitamins, minerals and essential amino acids which are vital for health and welfare. Industry leaders have stated that micronutrient suppliers are unwilling to sign contracts as they cannot guarantee delivery. The stark reality is that if birds are not given adequate nutrition, the same as humans, their health and welfare will be affected. This will mean less poultry on supermarket shelves as supply is inhibited. Another linked concern is the flow of animal medicines, where any shortages will be a threat to bird welfare. This is all on top of avian influenza, which rips through the industry every year, causing huge upheaval and economic damage.
As with all industries, rising energy and fuel costs will increase the price of production and transportation. Yet for poultry meat production there is increasing uncertainty over the supply of key vitamins, minerals and essential amino acids which are vital for health and welfare. Industry leaders have stated that suppliers are unwilling to sign contracts as they cannot guarantee delivery. The stark reality is that if birds are not given adequate nutrition, the same as humans, their health will be affected. This will mean less poultry on supermarket shelves as supply is inhibited. Another linked concern is the flow of animal medicines.
The broader impacts extend across the wider supply chain. Around one-third of global fertiliser trade passes through the affected region, and nutrient production is heavily reliant on natural gas. Disruption to both supply and production has driven fertiliser prices sharply higher. This is expected to increase feed costs, which account for most of the cost of production, particularly for soy-based inputs, compounding pressures from higher fuel and transport costs.
Taken together, these factors are creating sustained upward pressure on the cost of poultry production. While some increases may be absorbed by the industry, others will inevitably have to be passed on to consumers.
The industry also warns that these short-term shocks are exacerbating existing long-term problems of resilience in domestic production. Consumer demand for poultry is increasing by 2-4% every year, and with an expanding population, the industry needs more farm space to ensure reliable supply. Yet planning barriers continue to limit growth and imports, which have already risen by 7% year-on-year and are produced to lower standards, are already being relied upon to plug the gap. Without action, the UK will become increasingly dependent on foreign producers for UK food security.
Industry leaders are urging government to get agri-food sector around the table to discuss the risks posed to UK food security and form a plan for addressing these mounting supply chain pressures.
Richard Griffiths, chief executive of the British Poultry Council, said: “Global events are once again challenging the resilience of our domestic food production. With chicken as half the meat this nation eats, we take our role seriously in ensuring people can access affordable food. The promise by Government of a sector growth plan for poultry takes on a new urgency and we call on Ministers to accelerate its delivery.”