Facebook Twitter Instagram
    • FREE Email Newsletters
    • About Us
    • Advertise
    • Contact Us
    • FREE Magazine Subscriptions
    •  
    Twitter LinkedIn
    Podcast
    Poultry News
    • Production
      • Broiler Production
      • Ducks
      • Egg Production
      • Game
      • Hatching
      • Housing
      • Turkeys
    • Processing
    • Business & Politics
      • Business
      • Economics
      • EU & Politics
      • Marketing
      • People
      • Training & Education
    • Welfare
      • Environment
      • Food Safety
      • Vet & Medication
      • Welfare
    • Feed
    • Genetics
    • New Products
    • Magazines
      1. May 2022
      2. April 2022
      3. February 2022
      4. January 2022
      5. December 2021
      6. November 2021
      Featured

      Protected: Poultry Business – April 2022

      By Chloe RyanApril 7, 2022
      Recent

      Protected: Poultry Business – May 2022

      May 6, 2022

      Protected: Poultry Business – April 2022

      April 7, 2022

      Protected: Poultry Business – March 2022

      March 8, 2022
    • Jobs
      • Browse Jobs
      • Post a Job
      • Manage Jobs
    • Events
      • National Egg and Poultry Awards
      • Poultry Fair
    Poultry News
    Business & Politics

    Analysis: Deal or no deal?

    Chloe RyanBy Chloe RyanAugust 29, 20186 Mins Read
    Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email
    Share
    Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email

    By Michael Barker

    The prospect of a no-deal Brexit could become a reality if a breakthrough is not made by March 2019. What could it mean for the UK poultry industry?

    With only six months to go until Britain’s departure from the European Union, the dreaded scenario of a no-deal Brexit is looming ever larger. With a divided UK government battling itself as much as EU negotiators, and Brussels seemingly determined to set an example as a warning to other nations, what initially seemed an unlikely prospect looks an ever-increasing reality.

    But what would it mean for the British poultry industry if Britain goes it alone with no deal in place? What do producers need to prevent the most disastrous forecasts coming to pass, and could there be any positives to come out of it?

    The British Poultry Council has warned that there could be a devastating impact on the cost of food as a result of the loss of workers in a sector where nearly 60 per cent of the 37,300 direct employees – not to mention the 87,000 wider jobs the sector sustains – are EU nationals. There have been many attempts to recruit more Brits, but it feels like a losing battle to hire locals for the task of, say, catching turkeys.

    The government has so far refused to offer any firm commitment that the agriculture industry will have access to a new scheme to recruit labour from either the EU or further afield after Brexit. That’s particularly troubling given that there are already widespread reports from farms that EU workers feel both unwelcome in this country and uncertain about whether they can stay long term, leading to a marked decline in the availability of labour.

    “In the case of a no-deal Brexit, our producers’ nightmare scenario is a massive loss of workforce,” affirms BPC chief executive Richard Griffiths. “This will have a knock-on effect on the cost of production, which will affect the price of food. The latest economic modelling predicts prices rising by around 25 per cent in the event of a no-deal.”

    The BPC has called on the government to recognise food as a special case and treat it as a national security issue to avoid the emergence of a two-tier food system whereby lower-income families have to rely on lower-standard imports. “We need the government to devise a food strategy that enables EU nationals to fill vacancies in our sector that cannot be filled with EU workers, and that recognises the importance of food and the challenges it faces in being an essential yet perishable product,” says Griffiths.

    With fears that a no-deal Brexit could adversely affect farm incomes in the poultry sector, the NFU recently completed an impact report looking at how different scenarios could affect producers across five key areas: farm payments, labour, trade with the EU, trade with the rest of the world and regulations.

    The report analyses three likely outcomes, which it has dubbed ‘Evolution’, ‘Unilateral Liberalisation’ and ‘Fortress UK’, with the three tiers covering scenarios from a comprehensive deal and close working relationship with the EU through to a cleaner split that will see the adoption of WTO tariffs and a reduction of labour availability.

    The study agrees that labour is the most crucial issue for both broiler and free-range producers, with broiler enterprises facing the scenario that the increased cost of labour could wipe out any potential price increases caused by different trade situations. On trade itself, it is expected that tariff levels for both imports into the UK and exports to foreign markets could lead to significant price changes for different segments of the poultry meat and egg market: whereas the free-range shell egg market is largely insulated from changes in trade relationships, for example, the wholesale and processed markets are much more vulnerable.

    “While poultry meat prices could benefit substantially from high tariffs, it is important to ask a number of questions about such an outcome,” the report states. “Specifically the extent to which retailers would be willing to pay the prices forecast and how long any government would keep tariffs in place.”

    Farm payments and regulation are expected to have less of a bearing on incomes for both broiler and free-range enterprises.

    Top of the wishlist for the NFU is access to labour and markets – specifically the EU market – according to Rebecca Hesketh, the union’s EU exit and international trade adviser. “We see the best option as having frictionless trade [with the EU],” she tells Poultry Business. “For poultry meat we rely on carcass balancing. There’s high demand for white meat in the UK but in other markets there’s greater consumption of dark meat.” The UK industry also wants to see its animal welfare and production standards protected so it is not undermined by cheap imports.

    Certainly, food security after Brexit remains an area of real concern, with experts including Professor Tim Lang of City University, the University of Sussex’s Professor Erik Millstone, Tony Lewis from the Chartered Institute of Environmental Health and Professor Terry Marsden of Cardiff University among those saying the government must take steps to ensure food quality is guaranteed – after all, over £2 billion of poultry meat a year is imported – and food fraud is taken seriously. The group have co-authored a report entitled ‘Feeding Britain: Food Security after Brexit’ and while they welcomed the fact that July’s Chequers statement and subsequent White Paper recognised the importance of agri-food, they argued the government is making a fundamental mistake in proposing close alignment with the EU only for farming and manufacturing, but not for retail or foodservice. This, they said, “injects a fault line into the UK food system between the production and service sectors.”

    Other issues include the question of logistics, with dire warnings of huge tailbacks at ports as authorities become overwhelmed with inspections and paperwork if there is no frictionless trade deal in place.

    It’s hard to find positives in what is a murky future. One clear bonus would be the potential to reinforce the British brand and put domestic production at the heart of a new British Agricultural Strategy. That’s all well and good, but farmers need the tools to ensure they can deliver. The government still believes a deal could be struck as early as October, but while many would consider that optimistic, the clock is ticking for clarity ahead of what will be a monumental 2019 for Britain.

     

     

     

    Share. Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email
    Previous ArticleEgg sales and consumer recognition in good health
    Next Article Interview: Anna Healy of Joice & Hill, unit manager of the year award-winner
    Chloe Ryan

    Editor of Poultry Business, Chloe has spent the past decade writing about the food industry from farming, through manufacturing, retail and foodservice. When not working, dog walking and reading biographies are her favourite hobbies.

    Read Similar Stories

    Business & Politics

    Government decision to delay import checks requirement by up to 18 months “flies in the face of common sense”

    May 2, 2022
    Business & Politics

    Aviagen UK all set to exchange knowledge and ideas at the 2022 British Pig & Poultry Fair

    April 28, 2022
    Business & Politics

    BVA calls on government to put animal welfare laws top of the agenda in next parliamentary session

    April 28, 2022
    Most Read

    Australia’s biggest chicken processors to fix unfair contracts with farmers after ACCC investigation

    May 26, 2022

    Egg prices could rise as much as 21% this year as Bird Flu hits the US

    May 26, 2022

    Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the UK and Europe

    May 25, 2022
    © 2022 Lewis Business Media. All Rights Reserved.
    Lewis Business Media, Suite A, Arun House, Office Village, River Way, Uckfield, TN22 1SL

    Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Terms & Conditions

    • AA Farmer
    • Farm Contractor
    • Pig World
    • OvertheCounter

    Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.

    We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “ACCEPT ALL”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent.
    Cookie SettingsREJECT ALLAccept All
    Manage consent

    Privacy Overview

    This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
    Necessary
    Always Enabled
    Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
    CookieDurationDescription
    AWSALBCORS7 daysThis cookie is managed by Amazon Web Services and is used for load balancing.
    cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary1 yearSet by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Necessary" category .
    PHPSESSIDsessionThis cookie is native to PHP applications. The cookie is used to store and identify a users' unique session ID for the purpose of managing user session on the website. The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed.
    Others
    Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
    CookieDurationDescription
    AWSALB7 daysAWSALB is a cookie generated by the Application load balancer in the Amazon Web Services. It works slightly different from AWSELB.
    explat_test_aa_weekly_lohp_2021_week_4517 days 8 hoursNo description
    ppwp_wp_session30 minutesNo description
    tk_ai14 daysGathers information for WordPress by themselves, first party analytics tool about how WP services are used. A collection of internal metrics for user activity, used to improve user experience.
    tk_qssessionGathers information for WordPress by themselves, first party analytics tool about how WP services are used. A collection of internal metrics for user activity, used to improve user experience.
    Advertisement
    Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
    CookieDurationDescription
    OAGEOsessionOpenX sets this cookie to avoid the repeated display of the same ad.
    OAID1 yearThis cookie is set when an AdsWizz website visitor have opted out the collection of information by AdsWizz service or opted to disable the targeted ads by AdsWizz.
    Analytics
    Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
    CookieDurationDescription
    _ga2 yearsThe _ga cookie, installed by Google Analytics, calculates visitor, session and campaign data and also keeps track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookie stores information anonymously and assigns a randomly generated number to recognize unique visitors.
    _gat_gtag_UA_31822138_71 minuteSet by Google to distinguish users.
    _gid1 dayInstalled by Google Analytics, _gid cookie stores information on how visitors use a website, while also creating an analytics report of the website's performance. Some of the data that are collected include the number of visitors, their source, and the pages they visit anonymously.
    tk_lr1 yearThe tk_lr is a referral cookie set by the JetPack plugin on sites using WooCommerce, which analyzes referrer behaviour for Jetpack.
    tk_or5 yearsThe tk_or is a referral cookie set by the JetPack plugin on sites using WooCommerce, which analyzes referrer behaviour for Jetpack.
    tk_r3d3 daysJetPack installs this cookie to collect internal metrics for user activity and in turn improve user experience.
    SAVE & ACCEPT
    Powered by CookieYes Logo